08/05/2024

When Impunity Prevails by Popular Will

Last Sunday, May 5, 2024, the Panamanian people voted in general elections for a new president. Every five years, the entire political system of Panama is renewed, so the citizens also voted for the 20 representatives to the Central American Parliament, 71 representatives to the National Assembly, 81 district mayors, 701 representatives of townships, and 11 council members.

In this electoral process, it would seem that the only thing that transpired normally was the electoral day itself. With a participation rate of 77.58%, the civic day ended in an orderly manner with official results in the early hours of the night and with the recognition of the results by all political forces...

With 34.35% of the votes, lawyer and diplomat José Raúl Mulino will be president for the next five years. His message of recovering prosperity for the country, which is experiencing growing social inequality, resonated with an important sector of the electorate. Having served as Minister of Government and Justice and Minister of Public Security during Ricardo Martinelli's presidency, Mulino was anointed as the successor to the former president when the Electoral Tribunal disqualified the former president for being convicted of money laundering. In this manner, without any internal party process, the electoral authority formalized Mulino's candidacy for the Realizing Goals Party (RM, acronym for Ricardo Martinelli).

In contrast to yesterday’s events, the pre-electoral context was much more awkward.

The new president had the immense collaboration of the Electoral Court and the Supreme Court of Justice, which positioned him in the public agenda by debating whether his candidacy was constitutional or not. On May 3, just two days before the most uncertain elections that Panamanian democracy has faced, leaving the citizens in suspense and conditioning the campaign strategies of the rest of the candidates, the Supreme Court of Justice of Panama declared its constitutionality.

In a clear display of opting for inaction, the Electoral Court did not sanction any of the maneuvers that former President Martinelli exercised from the Nicaraguan embassy, where he maintains an improbable political asylum. After the electoral authority's decision conditioned Mulino's participation to Martinelli's non-interference in the electoral contest, the former president turned the diplomatic headquarters into a bunker and participated via zoom in the closing campaign event.

In second place, with a discourse of rupture with the political system, Ricardo Lombanda positioned himself (25.04% of the votes). After surprising in the ballot boxes in 2019 as an independent candidate, in this election, he ran with the political party Movimiento Otro Camino (Moca) and proposed himself as "someone new," gaining support from many young people. In Panama, 40% of the electorate is under 40 years old.

In third place was Martin Torrijos, who, already estranged from the Democratic Revolutionary Party that brought him to power in 2004, supported by the Popular Party and with a discourse focused on economic recovery and the search for National Unity, received the support of many militants of the party founded by his father, Omar Torrijos, who were disenchanted with President Laurentino Cortizo's administration and with the process of party primaries.

Far below were the political parties that have dominated the political system for the last 35 years: the Panameñista Party, the Democratic Center, and the ruling Democratic Revolutionary Party, something that will undoubtedly mark the reconfiguration of the party system in the coming years.

The decline of traditional parties can be explained by Panama's current sociopolitical situation. In the 1990s, the dominance of two main parties, the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) and the Panameñista Party, gave way to the emergence of "third forces," such as Democratic Change, which challenged this bipartisanship.

The first deviation occurred with the rise of Democratic Change, taking businessman Ricardo Martinelli to the presidency between 2009 and 2014, altering the balance of political power. Then, the introduction of open presidential nomination allowed independent candidates to gain relevance, reflecting widespread discontent with the traditional political class. Factors such as corruption, economic crisis, and the increasing use of social networks in electoral campaigns have exacerbated these tensions.

The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened the economic and social situation, increasing the perception of corruption and decreasing government approval. The protests of the Alianza Nacional por los Derechos del Pueblo Organizado (National Alliance for the Rights of the Organized People) and other groups in 2022 and 2023 reflected widespread discontent and demand for structural changes. The massive mobilizations during 2023 against mining and the declaration of unconstitutionality by the Supreme Court of Justice of the Law that enabled Quantum Minerals to operate were symptoms of the change in direction demanded by the citizenry.

All of the above will be compounded by the migration crisis, which will undoubtedly be a topic that the new president will have to address, following the massive flow of displaced people through the Darien jungle, the only existing land route to reach the United States from South America.

In addition, there is also the historic water crisis, which has led to limiting the number of ships crossing each day, as the Panama Canal suffers from a drop in water level that could cause an estimated loss of 500 to 700 million dollars to the country, and finally the institutional crisis.

In short, the disqualified former president imposed his popularity at the polls and led his protégé to the presidency, connecting with a citizenry that prefers to remember the economic stability of his government over the demonstrated white-collar crimes. A government that was favored by the judiciary in order compete, was in the end, also ratified by the popular vote.

Ethical analyses of electoral preferences seem to be off the agenda when economic urgencies are pressing. Now it will be up to the new president to demonstrate that he is the one exercising power, satisfying the high citizen expectations before frustrations come knocking on the doors of the Palacio de las Garzas.

Dolores Gandulfo: Director of the Electoral Observatory of the Permanent Conference of Political Parties of Latin America and the Caribbean (COPPPAL). Member of the Observatory of Political Reforms of Latin America, of the Argentine Association of International Studies (AERIA), and of the Network of Political Scientists.