12/06/2024
The results of the elections in Europe, and especially the media hysteria they generated, compel us to ask what we mean when we talk about the far-right and its supposed victory. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, sought to outline the political scope of the elections on that same Sunday night. It is important to take her assertion that "the center holds" with a grain of salt since she is, after all, a stakeholder in this matter. Ultimately, these are the words of someone running for re-election as a prominent political and institutional figure of the Union.
It may seem like a matter of nuance, but the response to what we mean when we talk about the far-right in Europe clearly diffuses the excitement that filled media headlines worldwide. In general terms, the direction Europeans chose for their continental parliament shows a shift from the center to the right, but it seems like a stretch to say we are witnessing a victory of the extreme version of this ideological stance. So much so that the overall numbers point to a triumph of the European People's Party. Initial figures indicated they secured 186 seats out of 720, compared to the 135 of the Social Democrats.
The anxiety in the headlines can be explained by the simplifying and truncating tendencies to which the news industry is understandably bound. This is not a disqualification. On the contrary, it is seen as an inevitability of news production that they focused on the results in Germany and France, the historical, political, and economic engines of the bloc. Through this lens, it is legitimate to emphasize a hypothetical far-right victory, with their representatives becoming the most voted force in France and the second in Germany, dealing an equally harsh blow to Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz. One opted to call early national parliamentary elections while the other did not, but both share a sense of dread, having faced a politically tumultuous Sunday. However, Europe is larger than the Paris-Berlin axis.
Another aspect that challenges the claim that Sunday's elections effectively delivered a far-right Europe to the world is that the vast majority of the winners do not reject Europeanism. This is highlighted by Ignacio Molina, an analyst at the Real Instituto Elcano. And the Europeanist vocation is, at the very least, a significant nuance to the assertion of a victory of the far-right, which is typically uncomfortable with this label. Molina himself admits that the elections show a shift to the right because the liberal center lost votes in favor of the center-right. Europeanism wins, yes, but particularly the more conservative factions. It could be said that the political center holds, survives, although it has done so at the cost of shifting in the opposite direction, for example, from social democracy. Here are two key concepts to relativize, if not disprove, the touted far-right victory: EUROPEANISM and CONSERVATIVES.
In the words of Javier Merchán from the University of Comillas in Spain, although the results showed a much more right-leaning correlation of forces, the pro-European center continues to be the main driver of continental politics. It seems that the core of the European Parliament will continue to be dominated by Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, and Liberals. Electoral numerology experts in the Old Continent claimed at the close of Sunday that more than 400 of the 720 elected MEPs belong to this sector, convinced Europeanists. They did highlight a decline due to liberal defeats, but downplayed its significance in light of the good performance of the Christian Democrats, with Ursula von der Leyen at the helm.
I return now to the idea that Europe goes beyond German and French political anxieties. The rightward shift has an important asset in Italy with Giorgia Meloni's victory (though in this particular case, many pages of theoretical analysis are still needed to establish how much of the extreme right is in her blood or if, as I believe, she leans toward a less rigid political model that will demonstrate its flexibility as more marketing waves than ideological ones develop). Meloni's victory contributes to questioning the assertion of a far-right triumph, as it highlights that Matteo Salvini's League, an old champion of the Italian far-right, had a reduction in the number of votes it received for the European Parliament.
Central Europe also did not send the best news for the far-right's tally in the Union's chamber. In Poland, the Christian Democrats reaffirmed the national leadership they achieved last year. Meanwhile, the party of Hungary's Viktor Orbán, which has cultivated relations with Russia and continental far-right formations, was the most voted but lost some seats. In Spain, the Popular Party won the elections, surpassing the socialist ruling party, and the far-right VOX came in third, with a modest increase of two seats compared to what it already held.
For the first time, Portugal will send two conservative right-wing deputies to the European Parliament. In Austria, the far-right did achieve a victory: the FPÖ became the main political force, slightly ahead of the Christian Democrats. Luxembourg, for its part, will send a right-wing populist deputy to the European Parliament for the first time.
In Eastern Europe, the far-right champions fell far short of expectations in the elections. The far-right offerings also fell short in the Baltic States and Bulgaria, only winning in Slovenia and the Czech Republic, where parties allied with Orbán were victorious. In Slovakia, a progressive party won, defeating the right-wing nationalist Prime Minister Robert Fico. In Romania, the far-right nationalist party received fewer votes than expected. Left-wing and Green parties made the biggest gains in Sweden, Finland, and Denmark.
This brief overview highlights the severe difficulty of insisting on a European reading of the results when, in reality, they are more of a national order. Adding up the elections of 27 countries may not, in this case, yield a homogeneous continental sum.
In summary: anxiety is predictable but never a good advisor. Europe seems to have shifted to the right, but not to its extreme variant, and nothing indicates it has abandoned its integrative and Europeanist vocation.
Anibal Jozami is a sociologist and specialist in International Relations. He is the President of the Foro del Sur Foundation.
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