05/02/2025

Ecuador facing the challenge of resolving the governance crisis through the electoral process

Since 2021, every two years, Ecuadorian citizens have gone to the polls to elect a president.

The country's economic instability, lack of governability, and the tragedy of violence have regrettably defined the reality of the Andean nation.

On February 9, elections will be held with 13,279,830 voters in the country and 456,485 abroad to choose the successor to Daniel Noboa, who took office in 2023 to complete the term of former President Guillermo Lasso, who amid numerous impeachment proceedings against him, dissolved Congress (invoking the Muerte Cruzada mechanism) and called for early elections.

In addition to the presidential ticket, which, in accordance with the 2020 reforms to the Democracy Code, must ensure gender parity, voters will also elect members of the National Assembly—with gender parity at the top of the lists—and representatives to the Andean Parliament.

For several years, Ecuador's political system has been defined by two characteristics: the Correísmo/Anti-Correísmo divide and high fragmentation due to the absence of a solid party system. Unfortunately, in recent years, widespread violence driven by organized crime has become part of daily life for Ecuadorians, forcing many to migrate. According to official data from Ecuador’s Ministry of the Interior, 94,767 citizens emigrated in 2024.

For the upcoming elections, 16 presidential tickets have been registered with the National Electoral Council, reflecting the continued fragmentation of the party system. However, unlike previous elections, there is a sharper polarization between the Correísta force Revolución Ciudadana, which is backing Luisa González, and Acción Nacional Democrática, which is supporting President Daniel Noboa’s re-election.

Among the diverse range of candidates is Leónidas Iza, leader of the indigenous movements; Andrea González, former vice-presidential candidate (2023) of the assassinated Fernando Villavicencio; and Felipe Tillería, who has spent more than half of his life abroad and appeals to "a cradle of values to reset the country."

In this election, the National Assembly will also be renewed. Citizens will need to choose 151 assembly members, as the number of legislators increased following the results of the 2022 census. Although the term for assembly members is four years, the current legislators have been in office for two years, as they were elected after the dissolution of the Assembly in 2023. For this reason, 93 of them are running for re-election.

In addition to the complexity posed by the fragmentation of the party system, Ecuadorian regulations allow regional political parties to present candidates for the National Assembly. As a result, regardless of who wins the elections, governance will present a challenge, as it will require managing a diversity of demands without consolidated parliamentary blocs.

At the same time, six assembly members are elected from the foreign constituency, divided into three regions: Canada and the United States; Latin America, the Caribbean, and Africa; and Europe, Asia, and Oceania.

After Trump took office in the United States, immigration became a growing concern in the region. Ecuador is one of the main countries of origin for irregular migrants arriving in the United States, which has forced the government to implement a plan to receive deported migrants.

With insecurity at the top of the public agenda, citizens report being satisfied with the presence of the military in the streets conducting internal security tasks. This marks a partial victory for Noboa, whose government has been compromised in recent months by the disappearance and murder of four minors detained by the Armed Forces in the Las Malvinas area of Guayaquil, where they were playing soccer.

Infrastructure has been another concern for citizens, who have experienced widespread power outages during the final months of 2024. The electoral impact of this phenomenon is difficult to predict.

With the electoral campaign already underway, the political debate is focused on President Daniel Noboa's decision to grant temporary leave for campaign activities. This decision, stemming from his conflict with Vice President Verónica Abad since the beginning of his term, could, according to experts, result in a serious electoral infraction for failing to request leave from the National Assembly, as required by Article 146 of the Constitution.

Back in August of last year, Abad filed a complaint with the Electoral Contention Tribunal for political violence based on gender against Noboa and Foreign Minister Gabriela Sommerfeld whom she accused of political harassment and bullying aimed at forcing her resignation and preventing her from assuming office when the president entered the campaign.

On Monday, February 3, the Constitutional Court annulled the decrees through which Noboa had temporarily delegated power to conduct campaign activities. This decision, made one week before the election, allowed him to make use of the time leading up to the election, and will only prevent him from leading the closing campaign events. If there were a second round of voting, however, the situation would become more complicated.

The Constitutional Court's ruling, however, refrains from addressing the existence of alleged electoral infractions, as this matter falls under the exclusive authority of the Electoral Contention Tribunal. Given that the ruling occurred during the campaign period, many analysts argue that if the president loses the election, he will have to go through several judicial instances, a scenario that is not expected to occur if he were victorious. These are the kinds of issues that arise in contexts where the judiciary is politicized.

On January 19, the presidential debate took place, which is mandatory for candidates under the reform to the Democracy Code that took place on February 3, 2020.

While the debate played a key role in 2023 in projecting the figure of Daniel Noboa, who had previously been underrepresented in the polls, this time around, the fact that the two contenders, who today account for nearly 70% of the projected vote, did not face each other directly diminished its impact.

It remains to be seen whether the final days of the campaign will influence the undecided voters that are still reflected in the polls, in an election that promises a second round.
 

Dolores Gandulfo is the Director of the Diploma in Comparative Electoral Systems at the Universidad Nacional Tres de Febrero. She is also the Director of the Electoral Observatory of the Permanent Conference of Latin American and Caribbean Countries (COPPPAL), a member of the Observatory on Political Reforms in Latin America, and a member of the Network of Political Scientists of the Association of International Relations Studies of Argentina (AERIA). Additionally, she is part of the Latin American Advisory Board of the Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT).